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A Pause, or a Stall?
Indicator/Event Wrapup: The developing picture of a moderate housing- and manufacturing-led growth acceleration–almost a “normal” recovery pattern–was abruptly called into question by the sharp March employment-growth slowdown. But that surprise came at the end of a quarter of exceptionally strong hours-worked growth, and the March result in itself showed a solid rise in work-hours–so there is a good possibility the situation represents a pause, rather than a stall like those that have occurred after other promising starts in recent years. Data to come–particularly numbers not heavily driven by the employment figures–will be watched to decide the issue.