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Category: Markets & Strategy
Business Cycle Indicators: All is Well?
Global Indicators • DE continues to attribute 65% as the probability of the baseline scenario. The baseline prospect, forecasts real economic growth to be at 2% to 3% with Q2 growth at 1.5%-to-2%. [private] U.S. read more
Initial Claims, Housing Starts: Limited Negativity
Real economy numbers come in on the soft side, with initial claims rising more than expected, and housing starts falling even harder than looked for. But, indications on the general trend of the economy are read more
Sinai’s Perspective – Economy Here-and-Now, Beyond, Policy and the Markets 5/6/13
[private]Sinai Perspective – Economy Here-and-Now, Beyond, Policy and the Markets 5-6-13[/private]
Sinai’s Economic and Market Perspectives – 3/12/13
[private]Sinai Perspectives – The Labor Market, US Economy, Washington Dissonance, and the Markets 3-12-13
Investment Strategy Update – 2/28/13
U.S. equity bull market entrenched despite (a) being longer-in-the-tooth at nearly four years than most Equity Bull Markets and (b) the already-strong runup to start the year.[private] Greater confidence in the DE “Baseline Prospect” (probability read more
Business Cycle Indicators: First look at 2013
Global Indicators GDP focus shifts to 2013. An accommodative Fed and relative strength in consumption and housing to continue. DE upgrades baseline prospect. China’s GDP figure for the fourth quarter of 2012 clocked in at read more
Financial Market Highlights 02-04-13
First Look at 2013 Treasury yields higher in January, the 10 year around 2% FOMC statement on January 30, 2012 makes no significant change to its policy settings. Fed continues to commit to low read more
Sinai’s Economic and Market Perspectives: Fiscal Cliff Compromise!
DE View— The last minute Congressional compromise on the Fiscal Cliff was very positive for the stock market because it relieved the sting that the Fiscal Cliff might have had on the economy. Consumption will read more
Financial Market Highlights 12-20-12
Fiscal Cliff Continues to Loom Over Markets Treasury yields higher in December, near 1.8% for the 10yr. Operation Twist gets replaced by outright MBS purchases of $45 Billion a month. Fed Commits to low read more
Business Cycle Indicators: Mixed Messages in Data on QE3, Fiscal Cliff
Global Indicators GDP focus shifts to 2013. More of the same for the U.S. and Canada, EU contraction deeper and longer than initially thought. Global PMI data mixed, hovering close to 50. Spanish capital flight read more