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DE | Quarterly | GDP Conference Call | The Economy in Late 2019, Entering 2020, and Beyond – 1/30/20
The Economy in Late 2019, Entering 2020, and Beyond
- Q4 GDP (Adv.)—Economy After the Q2, Q3 Slowdown
Up, Down, Sideways
- Strengths and Weaknesses—Where Strong, Sustainable? Where Weak, Continuing?
Prospect” (70% Odds) Story—Growth, Inflation, Unemployment Rate,
- Consumer Solid?
- Housing and Residential Construction
- Government—Federal, State and Local
- Manufacturing vs. Services
- Business and Capex
On in 2020?
- Policy Settings—Monetary Ease, Fiscal Stimulus, Trade
Risk Alternative Scenarios
- “Disappointing Growth” (20% Odds, Down from 25%)
- “Boom” (5% Odds, Up from 0%)
- “Recession” (0% Odds, Down from 5%, Previously 10%)
- “Shocks” (5% Odds, Including the Coronavirus)
- FOMC Meeting (Jan. 28-29): Results and Messages
- Interest Rate Prospects
- Q4 Profits Track To-Date
- Fair Value at 3260; Upside 3400; 2900 (Downside on a Correction)
- Asset Allocation Implications