» DE | Quarterly | GDP Conference Call | The Economy in Late 2019, Entering 2020, and Beyond – 1/30/20 Decision Economics

DE | Quarterly | GDP Conference Call | The Economy in Late 2019, Entering 2020, and Beyond – 1/30/20

Posted January 30, 2020 by rvillareal

The Economy in Late 2019, Entering 2020, and Beyond

  • Q4 GDP (Adv.)—Economy After the Q2, Q3 Slowdown
  • Momentum? Up, Down, Sideways
    • Strengths and Weaknesses—Where Strong, Sustainable? Where Weak, Continuing?
  • “Basic Prospect” (70% Odds) Story—Growth, Inflation, Unemployment Rate, Profits—How Long?
    • Consumer Solid?
    • Housing and Residential Construction
  • Government—Federal, State and Local
  • Manufacturing vs. Services
  • Business and Capex
  • Non-U.S.—Turning On in 2020?
    • Policy Settings—Monetary Ease, Fiscal Stimulus, Trade
  • Macro Risk Alternative Scenarios
    • “Disappointing Growth” (20% Odds, Down from 25%)
    • “Boom” (5% Odds, Up from 0%)
    • “Recession” (0% Odds, Down from 5%, Previously 10%)
    • “Shocks” (5% Odds, Including the Coronavirus)
  • Fixed Income
    • FOMC Meeting (Jan. 28-29): Results and Messages
    • Interest Rate Prospects
  • Equity Markets
    • Q4 Profits Track To-Date
    • Fair Value at 3260; Upside 3400; 2900 (Downside on a Correction)
  • Asset Allocation Implications