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India’s Industrial Production: Strong?
- October’s industrial production stronger-than-expected. A constructive result, but one that speaks of stabilization rather than a clear turnaround and recovery.
- The strong result alleviates some immediate pressure on the RBI to ease, but the RBI, despite an improving WPI, remains in a near-paralysis state when an easing stance still appears needed.
- India’s industrial result however, continues to be threatened by a continued fall of exports given current trends in Europe and China, and the Fiscal Cliff related risks in the U.S.
- All in all, the Indian economy continues to be weak and October’s results may imply a possible turn towards easier money in the first quarter of 2013.