» NAHB Survey: Credible? Decision Economics

NAHB Survey: Credible?

Posted February 15, 2012 by Editor

[private]The NAHB-Survey juggernaut continues, with the headline index jumping another four points in February (Consensus: +1 point; Decision Economics: -2 points), putting the level at 29–versus 14 in September, when the index last declined.

Most of the latest increase was accounted for by the sales-related components, with the present-time reading up 5 points, to 30, and the next-six-months index up 5 points, as well, to 34.  Growth in prospective-buyer traffic was more restrained, with that index up 1 point, to 22.

Unfortunately, the credibility of the NAHB Survey is shrinking month by month, since recorded sales of new homes have hardly budged since September–with the December figure up by only 5,000, or 1.7%, from that month.
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