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REPLAY |DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Economic Tsunami and the Labor Market—Labor Market, Consumption and the Economy – 5/8/20
Economic Tsunami and the Labor Market—
Labor Market, Consumption and the Economy
Sequence of Events to Monitor—
– Coronavirus Shock—Sequence and Status
– Public Health Reactions and Shutdowns—The New Element
– Job Losses, Unemployment, Income Shock, and the Economy
– Monetary and Fiscal Policies—Responses and Lags
– Virus Evolution and Reopenings
– Labor Market the Channel and Key for the Future
– Labor Market and Economy Implications
- Nonfarm Payroll Jobs—Layoffs, Furloughs, Firings (Establishment Survey)
- Whys and Wherefores
- Unemployment Rate—Persons Looking for Jobs (Labor Force Supply) and Finding or Not Finding Work (Demand)
- April the Worst? What Next?
– The Economy—A
“V”; a “U”; “L” or “ ‘L’ with Uptilt”; a “W”?
– The Recession/Depression—Transitory or Permanent?
- The “ ‘L’ with an Uptilt”—Basic DE Prospect (Odds 50%)
- The “V” (Odds 25%)
- The “U” (Odds 30%)
- Recession/Depression with Slow Exit (Odds 80%)
Unemployment, Inflation and Profits (The Numerical Forecasts)
– Monetary and Fiscal Policy Responses
- Public Health and Now Reopenings Risks
- Monetary Policy—Quickest,
Biggest, Finessing the Errors of 2007-09
- Zero Interest Rates Forever?
- Federal Reserve the Real “Lender of last Resort”—The Bank for Everyone and Everything Levered by the U.S. Treasury
- Fiscal Support—Biggest Ever
- Lags are Variable and Can Be Long
Possibilities—A Huge Range
– Markets—Interest Rates, Equity Market Fair Value Ranges, Currencies