» REPLAY | DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Labor Market Post-Summer—Employment, Unemployment, the Economy and Inflation – 10/08/21 Decision Economics

REPLAY | DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Labor Market Post-Summer—Employment, Unemployment, the Economy and Inflation – 10/08/21

Posted October 9, 2021 by rvillareal

Labor Market Post-Summer—Employment, Unemployment, the Economy and Inflation
 

  • Labor Market in September—Strong, Mixed, Weak?
    • Jobs (Nonfarm Payrolls) the Headline; Unemployment Rate (Persons Working and the Labor Force)
    • How Tight the Labor Market?
    • Hiring, Not Hiring, Working and Not Working, Unfilled Jobs as Lots of Potential Workers Not Back—What Gives?
  • DE “Basic Prospect” (70% Odds) and Macro Alternative Risk Scenarios
    • “Basic Prospect”—Expansion—the Parameters Growth, Price Inflation, Unemployment, Earnings
    • “Stagflation” (10% Odds)—Demand-and Supply Shocks Feed this Scenario
    • Expansion and Boom (5%)
    • “Recession” (5%)
  • DE Fed Policy Scenario
    • Taper Starts in November Ends in July—$15 Bil./Month
    • Funds Rate Hike in July then Three More
    • Higher Interest Rates but Still Low
  • Other Assumptions—”Washington” and the Budget
    • Budget, Debt Ceiling, Traditional and Human Infrastructure Plans
    • What Timeline?
  • Financial Markets
    • Equity Bull Market Still—Earnings, Fair Value and Ranges
    • Bear Fixed Income Market—Early Stages—Interest Rate Outlook