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REPLAY |DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Now, the Economic Tsunami? March Labor Market – 4/3/20
Now, the Economic Tsunami?
March Labor Market
Coronavirus Tsunami—Now, the Economic Tsunami?
– Labor Market in March—Tip of the Iceberg?
- Slide in Jobs and Rise of Unemployment
- Jobs Losses—A Lot? Little? No Surprise?
- Establishment Survey (Nonfarm Payroll Jobs, Companies)
- Employment and Unemployment (HH Survey; Individuals)
- Unemployment Rate—To Skyrocket?
- Implications for the Economy
– DE Basic Prospect—“Transitory Coronavirus Shock” and a “Transitory Recession” (Odds 45%)
- GDP Growth—Q1 Track; Q2 and Q3 Freefall; Q4, Up Some; 2021 Solid
- Employment and Unemployment—High Double-Digit Unemployment Rate?
- Inflation, Disinflation or Deflation? Role of the “Oil Price Shock”
– Bottom-Line Perspectives—Deepest Downturn Ever Post-W.W.II; Disinflation or Deflation; Sky High Unemployment
- When Does It End? Where It Began—With the Virus
- Rough Potential Timelines
– Policy Responses—Too Late? Too Little? Enough?
- The Fed—Keeping the Financial System Liquid and Functioning
- $2.2 Trillion Fiscal “Support” and “Stimulus” Package
- Fiscal Policy Analysis and Effects
– Global and
U.S. Downturn Waves—Rest-of-the-World
– What Ends the Episode? What Ends It Is What Caused It!
– Macro Risk Alternative (30%)—“Full-Fledged Recession”
– Equity Bear Market—Earnings Prospects and Tentative “Fair Value” Marks
– Interest Rates and the Dollar