» REPLAY |DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Now, the Economic Tsunami?  March Labor Market – 4/3/20 Decision Economics

REPLAY |DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Now, the Economic Tsunami?  March Labor Market – 4/3/20

Posted April 3, 2020 by rvillareal

Now, the Economic Tsunami?
March Labor Market

–  The Coronavirus Tsunami—Now, the Economic Tsunami?
–  Labor Market in March—Tip of the Iceberg?

  • Slide in Jobs and Rise of Unemployment
  • Jobs Losses—A Lot? Little? No Surprise?
  • Establishment Survey (Nonfarm Payroll Jobs, Companies)
  • Employment and Unemployment (HH Survey; Individuals)
  • Unemployment Rate—To Skyrocket?
  • Implications for the Economy

–  DE Basic Prospect—“Transitory Coronavirus Shock” and a “Transitory Recession” (Odds 45%)

  • GDP Growth—Q1 Track; Q2 and Q3 Freefall; Q4, Up Some; 2021 Solid
  • Employment and Unemployment—High Double-Digit Unemployment Rate?
  • Inflation, Disinflation or Deflation? Role of the “Oil Price Shock”

–  Bottom-Line Perspectives—Deepest Downturn Ever Post-W.W.II; Disinflation or Deflation; Sky High Unemployment

  • When Does It End? Where It Began—With the Virus
  • Rough Potential Timelines

–  Policy Responses—Too Late? Too Little? Enough?

  • The Fed—Keeping the Financial System Liquid and Functioning
  • $2.2 Trillion Fiscal “Support” and “Stimulus” Package
  • Fiscal Policy Analysis and Effects

–  Global and U.S. Downturn Waves—Rest-of-the-World
–  What Ends the Episode? What Ends It Is What Caused It!
–  Macro Risk Alternative (30%)—“Full-Fledged Recession”
–  Equity Bear Market—Earnings Prospects and Tentative “Fair Value” Marks
–  Interest Rates and the Dollar