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REPLAY |DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | The Labor Market Post-Summer—Coming Back, Normalizing or Not? – 10/2/20
The Labor Market Post-Summer—Coming Back, Normalizing or Not?
- U.S. Labor Market (September) Post-Summer—Strong, Stable, or Mixed in the Aftermath of the “Coronavirus Shock”, Economy Collapse, and “Recovery”?
(Nonfarm Payrolls, Establishment Survey); Employment (Persons Working,
Household Survey); Labor Force and the Unemployment Rate (Household
Survey); Average Hourly Earnings (Wage and Cost Inflation)
- Jobs and Employment Status—Where Strong, Where Weak
- Coming Back?
- “K” Picture of Division on the “Haves” and “Have-Nots” in the Labor Market
- Slack in
the Labor Market—How Much, How Long
- The Pandemic Unemployed—Temporary or Permanent?
- Company Hesitancy—Maximizing Shareholder Value (SVM)
Prospect”—Big Bounce Up and Sustained, But Uneven, Recovery
- “L” With an Uptilt or Nike “Swoosh” (Odds 60%)
- Rest-of-the-World Recoveries—China, Japan, Germany, S. Korea, Eurozone
Risk Scenario Alternatives
- “W” or “Double-Dip” (Odds 15%, Up from 10%)—“Dead Cat” Bounce, Fading Into Recession, Then More Stimulus and Recovery
- “V” (Odds 20%, Down from 30%)
- “Boom-Bust” (Odds 5%; New Scenario)
Reserve Guarantee—Steadfast and Supportive—“Ultra” Ultra-Easy Monetary
- Funds Rate Zero; QE as Needed; the Fed Lending Facilities to the Private Sector
- Forward Guidance, 2% Average Inflation Target, and Full Employment “Guarantees”
- Election ’20 and the Policy Aftermath—Perspectives Under Several Scenarios
Equity Market, Interest Rates Low and Stable, Dollar Steady to
Weak—Chinese Yuan Strength
- Earnings—Key Determinants—Fair Value and Ranges