» REPLAY |DE | Monthly | GDP Conference Call | The Economy—Slowing Down? Picking Up? Which Way Forward?  – 10/30/19 Decision Economics

REPLAY |DE | Monthly | GDP Conference Call | The Economy—Slowing Down? Picking Up? Which Way Forward?  – 10/30/19

Posted October 30, 2019 by rvillareal

The Economy—Slowing Down? Picking Up? Which Way Forward?

  • Q3 Economy—First Report on the Third Quarter
    • Weakened and Weakening? Picking Up? Stall Speed?
      • Economy’s Strengths and Weaknesses
      • Q4 Prospect and Possibilities
  • Recession on the Horizon?
    • DE Basic Prospect (60% Odds)
    • Macro Risk Alternatives “Disappointing Growth” and/or “Recession” (Total 40% Downside Risk)
      • Key Factors to Watch and Risk Elements
  • Key Assumptions for the Baseline
    • Non-U.S. Economies—2019-20—Tilting Up
    • “Trade War” and Trumpian Politics
    • 2020 Election—When Does it Matter?
    • Macro Policy Prospects—

U.S. “Easy Money”  “Fiscal Stimulus”;

Eurozone “Easy Money” “Fiscal Stimulus”;

Japan “Easy Money” “Fiscal Restraint”;

China “Easy Money” “Easy Fiscal”

  • Fed Policy, Near-Term and Beyond and the Interest Rate Outlook
    • Preemption But is it Enough?
    • Somewhat Lower Then Somewhat Higher
    • No Yield Curve Inversion
  • Continuing Bull Equity Market—Can it Last?
    • Earnings Update—U.S.
    • Fair Value and Fair Value Ranges
  • Asset Allocation Perspectives