REPLAY |DE | Quarterly | GDP Conference Call | Economic Tsunami Hits—Q1 Real GDP – 4/29/20

Posted April 29, 2020 by rvillareal

Economic Tsunami Hits—Q1 Real GDP

–  Q1 U.S. Economic Growth and Activity—Tsunami Hits Shore

• Q1 Real GDP—How Weak?
• The “Shutdown”—Weaknesses and Strengths
• Business Cutbacks and the Labor Market the Motive Forces of the Economic Tsunami
• Consumer Turn Very Negative

–  Recession/Depression?

• DE New “Basic Prospect”—“Transitory Coronavirus Shock” Recession/Depression (50% Odds)—6 Mos. Timeline
• “V” (30% Odds); “U” (20% Odds); or “ ‘L’ With an Uptilt” (DE, 50% Odds)
• Real Growth, Unemployment, Inflation
• Profits Prospect Ranges

–  Policy Stimulus: Biggest in History—Monetary and Fiscal
–  Equity Market—Wall Street Good, Main Street Bad—Why?

• Now and Then; Then and Now
• “V” Profits Path? Some History
• Fair Value and Ranges