» REPLAY | DE | Quarterly | GDP Conference Call | How Goes the Economic Expansion? What Next and Inflation Risk? – 10/28/21 Decision Economics

REPLAY | DE | Quarterly | GDP Conference Call | How Goes the Economic Expansion? What Next and Inflation Risk? – 10/28/21

Posted October 28, 2021 by rvillareal

How Goes the Economic Expansion?  What Next and Inflation Risk?

  • Q3 U.S. Economy—Strong, Weak, Mixed?
  • Slowdown in Growth and then Pickup.  Why?
    • Consumption the Big Driver Now and Going Forward
    • Business Outlays—Source of Strength?
    • Trade and the Non-U.S. Prospect
  • Federal Government, Deficits and Debt Stimulus—How Spending Initially Helps
  • DE Basic Prospect “Expansion” (75% Odds)—Typically at Least 3 Years to as Long as 10 Years
    • Basic Prospect “Story”—Strong Underlying Sectors and Huge Policy Stimulus
    • Dimensions—Growth, Inflation, Employment and Unemployment, Profits
    • Monetary and Fiscal Policy Support Huge Relative to History
  • Macro Risk Alternatives
    • Boom-Bust (10% Odds)—Boom Early, Accelerated Inflation, Fed Tightening, Recession
    • Federal Reserve Scenario (10% Odds)—Slowing Growth, Falling Inflation, Reaching Full Employment
    • Recession (5%)
  • Fed Plan Pre- and Post-FOMC Meeting (Nov. 2-3)
  • Interest Rate Prospects and Fundamental Determinants
  • Equity Bull Market—Carrying-On
    • Earnings, Earnings, Earnings
    • Fair Value and Fair Value Ranges