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REPLAY | DE | Quarterly | GDP Conference Call | How Goes the Economic Expansion? What Next and Inflation Risk? – 10/28/21
How Goes the Economic Expansion? What Next and Inflation Risk?
- Q3 U.S. Economy—Strong, Weak, Mixed?
in Growth and then Pickup. Why?
- Consumption the Big Driver Now and Going Forward
- Business Outlays—Source of Strength?
- Trade and the Non-U.S. Prospect
- Federal Government, Deficits and Debt Stimulus—How Spending Initially Helps
- DE Basic
Prospect “Expansion” (75% Odds)—Typically at Least 3 Years to as Long as
- Basic Prospect “Story”—Strong Underlying Sectors and Huge Policy Stimulus
- Dimensions—Growth, Inflation, Employment and Unemployment, Profits
- Monetary and Fiscal Policy Support Huge Relative to History
- Boom-Bust (10% Odds)—Boom Early, Accelerated Inflation, Fed Tightening, Recession
- Federal Reserve Scenario (10% Odds)—Slowing Growth, Falling Inflation, Reaching Full Employment
- Recession (5%)
- Fed Plan Pre- and Post-FOMC Meeting (Nov. 2-3)
- Interest Rate Prospects and Fundamental Determinants
- Earnings, Earnings, Earnings
- Fair Value and Fair Value Ranges