» REPLAY – Employment Conference Call – 12/7/18 Decision Economics

REPLAY – Employment Conference Call – 12/7/18

Posted December 7, 2018 by rvillareal

The Pre-Xmas Labor Market: Still Hot?

A very hot, tight and tightening, labor market in 2018 has surprised on its strength, although consistent with a new higher path of real GDP growth that has appeared.  At the same time, despite a lower actual unemployment rate than the commonly thought full employment unemployment rate, wage and price inflation remain subdued.

Did the American Jobs Machine Pre-Xmas still crank them out in November?

A Pre-Xmas look at the stock market Correction, the downward turn in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, and a relatively stable dollar vs. other major currencies.

  • Pre-Xmas Labor Market—The Data
    • Strong, Weak, Mixed?
    • Nonfarm Payrolls; Employment and the Unemployment Rate; Wage Inflation
  • Q4 U.S. Economy Track—Significant Slowing?
    • DE Basic Prospect—2019
    • Macro Risk Alternatives
  • Fed in Transition
    • Elements
    • Fed Path and Interest Rates Forecasts
  • Correction and Consolidations—Over or Ongoing?
    • Correction Down Risks—New Risks?
    • Fair Value Possibilities
  • Asset Allocation Perspectives for the Coming Year