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REPLAY| EMPLOYMENT CONFERENCE CALL | Labor Market “Surprises,” the Economy, Inflation – 11/3/23
Labor Market “Surprises,” the Economy, Inflation
Fed Policy and Interest Rates
The Early Q4 Look
One of the big surprises of the post-COVID economy has been a Superstrong Labor Market at the same time price inflation has been declining—a more than fully-employed Labor Market, rising disposable income to support consumer spending, nearly 70% of the economy being “pumped-up” by the Labor Market.
The Unemployment Rate has been beyond Full Employment by almost all post-WWII comparisons and has remained so for 21 months. That’s almost two years!
So long as this continues, demand-pull forces can keep price inflation up, monetary policy tight, interest rates “higher for longer,” perhaps sowing the seeds of the next Recession, but the economy keeps going.
The Labor Market could be viewed as the “Key to the Kingdom” of the U.S. economy.
Research Studies
DE | Sinai Economic and Market Perspectives | Seeds of A Sovereign Debt Crisis Planted – 02/03/21
[private] [/private] Seeds of A Sovereign Debt Crisis Planted Allen Sinai* The U.S. and Global economies have undergone a fiscal/debt revolution of huge import from which there will be no turning away! The main catalysts read more
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