» REPLAY – GDP Conference Call – 10/27/17 Decision Economics

REPLAY – GDP Conference Call – 10/27/17

Posted October 27, 2017 by rvillareal

New Path for the Economy? Q3 GDP and Beyond

 

  • “New Normal” or “New Path”?  2% or 3%?
  • S. Economy and Inflation—Lifting Up?
    • Q3 GDP—Strong, Weak, Mixed?
    • What is Clicking?—What is Not?
    • Hurricanes’ Damage
      • Low Inflation Puzzle—Still Low?
    • Tax Cuts Coming and Perspective
      • Tax Cut Historical Perspectives and Growth
      • Tax Reductions and the Economy
    • Basic Prospect—“Overshoot” (70% Odds)
      • “Overshoot”—Growth, Inflation, Employment and Unemployment, Earnings
      • Economy “Without” Tax Cuts
      • Economy “With” Tax Cuts
      • Alternative Risk Scenarios
    • Fed Prospect and Interest Rates—“Tighter Money and Easier Fiscal Policy”
      • When Will Fed Integrate Tax Cut Stimulus in Fed Forecast?
      • Fed Reaction?
    • Financial Markets—Still Bullish Stocks, Bearish Fixed Income, a Better Dollar
      • 2550 Current Fair Value S&P; 2700 Upside; 2800 Plus Late in 2018
      • 50% Fair Value U.S. 10-Year Yield
      • 2-1/4%-to-2-3/4% Range—Direction Up