» REPLAY – GDP Conference Call – 1/27/17 Decision Economics

REPLAY – GDP Conference Call – 1/27/17

Posted January 27, 2017 by rvillareal

First Look at the “Trump New World”

 

  • Q4 GDP Report and a Lift Up?
    • End 2016—Start of 2017 and Beyond
    • Beyond a Cyclical Bounce—Q1 GDP and Forward
    • Coming Indicators—Price Inflation Headed Toward 2% and Above?
    • Coming Labor Market Report (Friday, March 3) and the Unemployment Rate
  • “Pre-Trump” World—DE Baseline Prospect (Odds 70%)
    • Growth, Inflation, Unemployment vs. the Fed and Consensus
    • Fed Forecast Fiction
  • “Trump New World” A Black Swan Event? External Shocks—Election 2016 and Trumponomics
    • External Shocks Generally—Examples Oil Price Shocks, Wars, Reagan and Reagonomics
    • Election 2016—Unexpected and Unforeseen Result—“Black Swan” or “External Shock”
    • Policy External Shocks—Trumponomics
    • Washington and Changing Institutions
    • Trade and International Shocks
  • “New Trump World” U.S. Basic Prospect—An “Overshoot” Scenario (70% Odds)
  • Bull Equity Market Rolls On
    • S&P500 Operating Earnings—Pre- and Post-Trump
    • P-E Ratios Upside Possibilities
    • “Fair Value” and Ranges
  • Fed Policy and Interest Rates—Bear Fixed Income
    • At Least 3 Fed Hikes in 2017
    • Composition of the Federal Reserve Going Forward
  • Asset Allocation Implications—Strong Overweight Equities (85% vs. 55%); Strong Underweight Fixed Income (10% vs. 35%); Underweight Cash & Equivalent (5% vs. 10%); Overweight Alternatives