» REPLAY: GDP Conference Call – 7/27/18 Decision Economics

REPLAY: GDP Conference Call – 7/27/18

Posted July 27, 2018 by rvillareal

A “Wow” Quarter?—First Report on Q2 U.S. Economy

 

  • Second Quarter Real GDP—Strong Rebound to the “New” Normal Path of Permanently Higher Growth?
    • Real GDP and Its Component—Strengths and Weaknesses
    • Why the Rebound From Q1?
      • Can a Now Higher Growth Path of 3%, a Little More, Little

Less, Be Sustained?

  • S. Economy Path Ahead: The “Baseline Prospect”—The “New” New Normal
    • Consumer—Fundamentals All Supportive
      • Business Sector—Strong Fundamentals
      • Manufacturing—Picking Up and Inventories Under Control
      • Federal Government Spending—A New Surprise?
      • Trade and Net Exports—Maybe Not So Bad As Thought
    • Employment, Unemployment, and Inflation Prospect: Parameters of the “Baseline Prospect” vs. the Fed
    • Macro Risks to the “Baseline Prospect”
      • Trade, Tariffs, Uncertainty
      • Too High Price Inflation?
      • Political and Geopolitical
    • Fed Prospect and Interest Rate Outlook
    • DE Earnings Upward Revisions and the Continuing Bull Equity Market
      • Point Fair Value
      • Upside and Downside Bounds
      • Yearend Target
        • Policy Mix Backdrop Going Forward—Easy Fiscal-Tighter Money and Implications