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REPLAY | GDP Conference Call | Too Good to Be True? 2024 Economy, Policy, Markets, Risks – 1/25/24
Too Good to Be True? 2024 Economy, Policy, Markets, Risks
- Q4 GDP Report, Year 2023, and Launch into Election Year 2024
- Q4 GDP Solid or Weak?
- Year in Review—Strengths and Weaknesses
- Why So Surprising to So Many? Hypothesis—The T (technology) and a Productivity Wave
- Early Look—2024 Economy, Policies and Markets—Too Good to Be True?
- DE “Baseline” Forecast (Odds 60%)—Growth, Inflation, Labor Market, Earnings Parameters
- Macro Alternatives—“Recession” (Odds, 25%); Fed View—Growth, But Much Weaker (Odds 10%); “Boomy” (Odds 5%)
- Monetary Policy and Interest Rates—An Early Look
- Reductions Later than Consensus—No Hurry by Fed
- Short- and Long-Term Interest Rate Prospects
- Risks—Inflation Pickup, Washington and the Election, Geopolitical
- New “Bull” Equity Market Since Autumn
- Earnings Prospect (S&P Op. EPS)
- Multiples and Interest Rates
- “Fair Value” Range (Current) 4500 to 5100; Midpoint 4800; Rising Through the Year
- Election 2024 and Aftermath?