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REPLAY | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Is the Worst Over?The Labor Market and the Economy – 6/5/20
Is the Worst Over?
The Labor Market and the Economy
- Is the
Worst Over? Labor Market in May
- Jobs, Unemployment Rate, Earnings—Can it Get Any Worse?
- Q2 Track for the Economy and Beyond—Reopenings
- Basic Prospect—Still “ ‘L’ With An Uptilt” (55%, Up from 50%)
- Other Possibilities—
- “V” (Odds 20%, No Change);
- “U” (Odds 25%, Down From 30%)
- Depression and Deflation—Debt Deflation—A Sneaky 1930s Possibility
- Slack in the Economy—Potential Growth vs. Actual Growth (the “Gap) and Continuing High Unemployment (Double-Digits)
- Policy Responses—Public Health and the Coronavirus; The Fed; Fiscal Stimulus
- Geopolitical and Political Tensions as Macro Risks
- Financial Markets Prospects—Interest Rates, Equity Market Fair Value Ranges