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REPLAY: Sinai’s Employment Conference Call – 12/8/17
Pre-Christmas Labor Market—Still Tight and Tightening?
The Labor Market Post-Hurricanes and Pre-Xmas
- November Labor Market—Strong, Weak, Mixed?
- Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Wage Inflation
- Where Jobs Are, Where Aren’t
- The Labor Market and the U.S. Economy Prospect
- “Basic Prospect” “Overshoot and Trumponomics” (70% odds)
- Macro Risk Alternatives—Upside (10%); Boom-Bust (10%); Downside (“Old” New Normal) (10%)
- Washington Political and Geopolitical the Biggest Risks
- Inflation and Fed Policy—A Key in the Puzzle of Low Inflation
- Wage-Inflation Phillips Curve?
- Price-Inflation Phillips Curve?
- DE Research—Mismeasured Productivity Growth, New-New Technology, Lower Expected Infla8tion
- Fed Prospect—“Forecasts” and “Dot Plots” Plan to be Noted
- More Growth, Lower Unemployment, Pretty Much the Same Inflation Expected Fed Forecasts
- “Tax Reduction and Jobs Act” effects and the Fed
- Fed Forecasts and the Tax Cut Stimulus—“What If”
- Fed Plan—Gradualism But With a Potential Hawkish Tilt
- Fixed Income and Equity Market Prospects