REPLAY: Sinai’s Employment Conference Call – 12/8/17

Posted December 8, 2017 by rvillareal

Pre-Christmas Labor Market—Still Tight and Tightening?

The Labor Market Post-Hurricanes and Pre-Xmas

• November Labor Market—Strong, Weak, Mixed?
  • Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Wage Inflation
  • Where Jobs Are, Where Aren’t
• The Labor Market and the U.S. Economy Prospect
  • “Basic Prospect” “Overshoot and Trumponomics” (70% odds)
  • Macro Risk Alternatives—Upside (10%); Boom-Bust (10%); Downside (“Old” New Normal) (10%)
• Washington Political and Geopolitical the Biggest Risks
• Inflation and Fed Policy—A Key in the Puzzle of Low Inflation
  • Wage-Inflation Phillips Curve?
  • Price-Inflation Phillips Curve?
  • DE Research—Mismeasured Productivity Growth, New-New Technology, Lower Expected Infla8tion
• Fed Prospect—“Forecasts” and “Dot Plots” Plan to be Noted
  • More Growth, Lower Unemployment, Pretty Much the Same Inflation Expected Fed Forecasts
  • “Tax Reduction and Jobs Act” effects and the Fed
    • Fed Forecasts and the Tax Cut Stimulus—“What If”
    • Fed Plan—Gradualism But With a Potential Hawkish Tilt
• Fixed Income and Equity Market Prospects