» REPLAY: Sinai’s Employment Conference Call – 2/2/18 Decision Economics

REPLAY: Sinai’s Employment Conference Call – 2/2/18

Posted February 2, 2018 by rvillareal

Beyond Full Employment?—Jobs, the Unemployment Rate, and Inflation

  • S. Labor Market in the New Year—Beyond “Full Employment”?
    • January Labor Market—Strong, Weak, Mixed?
    • Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Wage Inflation
    • Slack and the Unemployment Rate
    • Where is the “Phillips Curve?”
  • Labor Market and the Economy—DE “Basic Prospect” (75% odds); “Boom-Bust” (10% odds); “Growth Disappointment” (5% odds); Upside Surprise (10% odds)
    • DE vs. Consensus and Federal Reserve Forecasts
    • “Overshoot” for the Economy and Full Employment
    • How Goes Inflation, the Big Question Mark
  • Federal Reserve and Interest Rates—The Bear Market
    • The Fed Plan and Forecasts—Three Hikes in the Federal Funds Rate
    • DE Forecasts—Four Hikes in the Federal Funds Rate
    • Long-Term Bond Yields and the Treasury Yield Curve—Fundamentals and Forecasts
  • Equity and Currency Market Fundamentals—Earnings, Forward P/Es, and Vocal “Currency Intervention” by the U.S.