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REPLAY: Sinai’s Employment Conference Call – 2/2/18
Beyond Full Employment?—Jobs, the Unemployment Rate, and Inflation
- S. Labor Market in the New Year—Beyond “Full Employment”?
- January Labor Market—Strong, Weak, Mixed?
- Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Wage Inflation
- Slack and the Unemployment Rate
- Where is the “Phillips Curve?”
- Labor Market and the Economy—DE “Basic Prospect” (75% odds); “Boom-Bust” (10% odds); “Growth Disappointment” (5% odds); Upside Surprise (10% odds)
- DE vs. Consensus and Federal Reserve Forecasts
- “Overshoot” for the Economy and Full Employment
- How Goes Inflation, the Big Question Mark
- Federal Reserve and Interest Rates—The Bear Market
- The Fed Plan and Forecasts—Three Hikes in the Federal Funds Rate
- DE Forecasts—Four Hikes in the Federal Funds Rate
- Long-Term Bond Yields and the Treasury Yield Curve—Fundamentals and Forecasts
- Equity and Currency Market Fundamentals—Earnings, Forward P/Es, and Vocal “Currency Intervention” by the U.S.