» REPLAY – Sinai’s Employment Conference Call – 2/5/16 Decision Economics

REPLAY – Sinai’s Employment Conference Call – 2/5/16

Posted February 5, 2016 by rvillareal

The Labor Market and the Economy—

Starting 2016 and the Prospect

  • S. Jobs Market in January—Can it Hold Up? Still Strong? Weakening? Mixed?
  • Jobs and Where?
  • Unemployment Rate and “Slack”
    • Wage Inflation and Price Inflation?  Where Is It?
  • The Economy and Labor Market Prospects—2016
    • Basic Prospect (Odds 65%): Changes—Slower Growth; Lower Inflation; Higher Unemployment Rate; Lower Profits
    • Alternative Macro Risk Scenarios
      • Disappointing Growth (20%)
      • Inflation Surprise (10%)
      • Delayed Upturn (5%)
    • The “Global Factor”—China Tentacles and Non-U.S. Factors
  • Central Banks go to Work Again—Easing (BOJ, ECB, PBOC, Others) or Not Tightening (Fed)
    • The Fed—Lower Price Inflation so a Lower Path for the Federal Funds Rate
    • Two or One Hikes with June the Earliest
    • Fundamentals and Prospects for Interest Rates—The New DE Interest Rate Models, Forecasts and “What Ifs”
  • The Equity Market—Fundamentals and Forecasts—DE Models and Changes
    • S&P500 Operating Earnings—Lower
    • Valuation (Forward P/E)—No Change
    • Fair Value and Ranges—Lower

REPLAY – Employment Feb 2016