» REPLAY – Sinai’s Employment Conference Call – 3/9/18 Decision Economics

REPLAY – Sinai’s Employment Conference Call – 3/9/18

Posted March 9, 2018 by rvillareal

Economy, Labor Market, the Economy, Wage and Price Inflation,

the Fed and Markets

  • The Labor Market in February
    • Strong Again? Weaker!  Mixed?
    • Jobs and Employment; Unemployment Rate; Wage Inflation
    • Wage Inflation and the “Phillips Curve”—Kicking-In?
  • Economy—DE “Basic Prospect” (70% odds)—“New” New Economy Parameters
    • Growth, Unemployment Rate, Inflation—2018 to 2020
    • Tax Cuts and Jobs Recovery Act of 2017—Effects and Evidence To-Date
    • Deficits—An Issue? What to Expect
  • Fed on March 20-21—Key Meeting
    • DE—Four Funds Rate Hikes; One per Quarter
    • “Bear Market” Fixed Income
    • Inflation the Key
  • Financial Market Perspectives
    • Long-Run Bull Equity Market; Bear Fixed Income; Cash & Equivalent a New Alternative
    • Short-Run—Volatility, Consolidation, and Waiting for the Fed, Then Earnings
  • Conclusion—A More Normal Business Cycle—U.S. and the World