REPLAY – Sinai’s Employment Conference Call – 6/3/16
The Labor Market: Decisive for the Fed in June and Beyond?
- May U.S. Labor Market—Not Decisive
- The Report—Strong? Weak? Mixed?
- Nonfarm Payrolls and the Pace
- Unemployment and “Slack”
- Wage Inflation and the Labor Market Wage-Price Cyclical Mechanism
- Why Not Decisive for the Fed?
- Strong Lift Up for Q2 Economy; the Consumer Again
- Higher U.S. Inflation in the Fed’s Key Indicator
- Higher Crude Oil Prices
- Mixed Dollar
- Better Overseas Prospect
- Relatively Stable Markets
- Nonfarm Payroll Jobs Growth In-and-Around Full Employment
- Slower Jobs Growth Likely
- “Full Employment” Economy Different
- Fed Prospect and DE Interest Rate Forecasts
- 2-or-3 Hikes in 2016? 2? 2-or-1?
- The DE U.S. Treasury Interest Rate Model and the Interest Rate Forecasts
- Some Additional Perspectives—Macro Risks and the Markets
REPLAY – Employment Jun 2016