REPLAY – Sinai’s Employment Conference Call – 9/2/16

Posted September 2, 2016 by rvillareal

The Labor Market; “Full Employment” and “Price Stability”;

FedThink and Fed Policy; the Economy and Markets

• Labor Market in Late Summer—Strong Enough for “Full Employment” and “Price Stability”?

• Data—Jobs, Unemployment Rate, Wage Inflation
  • “Wage-Phillips Curve” Inflation—Clicking-In?
• Labor Market Cyclical Inflation Process
• Full Employment and Price Stability Prospects Post-Labor Market Report
  • Fed Policy and the September 20-21 FOMC Meeting
    • J-Hole Tee Up for Rate Hike!
    • Most Fed Concerns Gone—1) Labor Market and Economy, 2) Brexit and International, 3) Financial Instability, 4) Not Yet Price Stability at 2% Medium-Term
    • Incoming Data Now In—What Else?
    • Price Inflation Framework and Forecasts—Fed and DE
    • Federal Funds Rate Scenario(s)
    • The U.S. Economy—“Baseline” and Macro Alternative Scenarios—Still Long Expansion View and Record-Long Secular Equity Bull Market
    • Interest Rates, the Stock Market, Dollar