» REPLAY – Sinai’s GDP Conference Call – 4/30/14 Decision Economics

REPLAY – Sinai’s GDP Conference Call – 4/30/14

Posted April 30, 2014 by rvillareal

                                 1st Report on First Qtr. GDP:  A Sustainable Rebound?

–         1st Qtr. GDP—Weak, Strong, Neither Strong nor Weak?

  • GDP and Its Components— Strengths and Weaknesses
  • Weather and Inventory Correction Footprints
  • How Goes the Consumer
  • “Fiscal Drag” Over?

–         Q2 Prospect and Beyond—No More “L” With an Uptilt at Bottom—Half “V” Better!

  • Rebound to be Sustained?
  • The Consumer Economy: Size and Fundamentals
  • Capex—Info Tech and “New” New Tech
  • Still Low Inflation?

–         “Where’s the Inflation?”

  • Inflation Transitory Low, Permanently Low, or to Turn Up?
  • Candidates Y/Y Low Inflation—“Old” and “New”

–         “Baseline Prospect” and Alternative Scenarios—

  • Baseline
  • “Delayed Takeoff”
  • “EMG Troubles”

–         Monetary Policy and Interest Rates

  • “Tapering” a Done Deal
  • First Federal Funds Rate Hike—Clock Ticking Starting in October or December
  • What to Watch? Categories of Indicators—Labor Market, Inflation and Inflation Expectations, Financial Conditions
  • “FedThink” on the First Rate Hike—Sometime Later in 2015; Slow, Steady Increases
  • When the Rate Hike, By How Much, Over What Time Span—“Unambiguous” and “Ambiguous” Scenarios

–         Financial Markets Perspectives

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