» REPLAY – The Labor Market, Economy and Fed Prospect Conference Call – 2/3/17 Decision Economics

REPLAY – The Labor Market, Economy and Fed Prospect Conference Call – 2/3/17

Posted February 3, 2017 by rvillareal

The Labor Market, Economy and Fed Prospect

Starting 2017: Overshoot?

  • Labor Market in January and 2017
  • Jobs, the Unemployment Rate, and Wage Inflation—Full Employment?
  • Price Stability Objective Coming Soon?
    • The Economy Prospect Post-Trump—Cyclically Solid
  • Baseline Prospect—“Overshoot” (70%)
  • “Growth Disappointment” (5%, Down)
  • “Upside Surprise” (15%, Down from 20%)
  • “Boom-Bust” (10%, up from 5%)
    • Fed and Future Monetary Policy
      • Latest Meeting
      • Fed Policy Scenario
      • A Trumpian Fed Coming?
    • Financial Markets Perspectives and Forecasts
    • Risks to “Optimism”
  • Business Cycle Dynamics
  • Shocks
  • Domestic Political—Trump Self Destructs
  • Trade and Protectionism—Biggest Economic Risk
  • Geopolitical Clashes—U.S. Isolationism and Potential Conflicts
  • Expectations Disappointments—Fiscal Stimulus

Does Not Occur; Tighter Monetary Policy; Consumer Malaise

  • Rest-of-the-World Economy Pickup Fails