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REPLAY|DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Hiring…and Not Hiring—Economy and Market Implications – 11/6/20
Hiring…and Not Hiring—Economy and Market Implications
Market Starting Q4—Strong, Mixed, Weak?
- Nonfarm Payrolls (Jobs); Unemployment Rate (Persons Working and the Labor Force); Wage Inflation (Avg. Hrly. Earnings and Income)
- DE “Basic Prospect” (65% Odds “L” Real GDP Path With a Bottom Uptilt or “Swoosh”)
- Pandemic Macro Risk—Far Worse Than Assumed—Integral to the Business Cycle
- Macro Risk Alternative Scenarios For Real GDP Path—“W” or “Double-Dip” (15% Odds, Unch.); “V” (Odds 15%, Unch.); “Boom-Bust” (Odds 5%; Unch.)
and the Pace of Recovery—Recovery Sustainable?
- Strengths, Weaknesses
- Fed and
Fiscal Policies—Clear and Unclear
- “Ultra” Ultra Easy Monetary Policy
- Fiscal Policies and Washington Politics—Uncertain
Hiring” and the Pace of Recovery
- Why Not
- Labor Costs Reductions
- Switch to “New” New Technology—Rewiring and Restructuring the Economy
- Technological Change Big Wave
- Consequences of an “Army of Unemployed”
- Why Not Hiring?
’20 Results—Potential Impacts and Scenarios
- Pandemic Actions Policies
- Federal Government Fiscal Policies—The Executive and New Congress
- Mood of America—Longer-Run Issues
- Surprisingly Strong Earnings Q3 and Higher Fair Value Ranges
- Longer-Run Still a New Bull Equity Market
- Stable to Longer Duration Higher Interest Rates
- Election and the Dollar—Neutral to Weaker