Sinai’s Employment Conference Call – 7/8/16
At Full Employment or Pulling Away?
The Labor Market, “Brexit Shock,”
Economy and Fed Policy
- Near Full Employment or Pulling Away? June Labor Market Report
- Strong? Weak? Mixed?
- May Result Aberrational or a New Pattern?
- Less Jobs Growth But Still Solid Enough?
- Labor Market Risk to the Economy
- Settling Down into Full Employment Mode—“Full Employment” Arithmetic of the Labor Market
- “Brexit Shock” and “Aftermath”
- Brexit Shock and Uncertainties
- Policy Responses—Especially Monetary
- Economic Effects—U.S. and Global
- DE “Baseline” (Odds 60%, Down from 65%) and Alternative Risk Scenarios
- “Growth Disappointment” (Odds 20%, Unch.)
- “Mild Recession” (Odds 15%, Up from 5%)
- “Upside Surprise” (Odds 5%, Unch.)
- Fed Scenario and Interest Rates