» Sinai’s Employment Conference Call – 7/8/16 Decision Economics

Sinai’s Employment Conference Call – 7/8/16

Posted July 8, 2016 by rvillareal

At Full Employment or Pulling Away?

The Labor Market, “Brexit Shock,”

Economy and Fed Policy

  • Near Full Employment or Pulling Away? June Labor Market Report
  • Strong? Weak?  Mixed?
  • May Result Aberrational or a New Pattern?
    • Less Jobs Growth But Still Solid Enough?
    • Labor Market Risk to the Economy
    • Settling Down into Full Employment Mode—“Full Employment” Arithmetic of the Labor Market
    • “Brexit Shock” and “Aftermath”
  • Brexit Shock and Uncertainties
    • Policy Responses—Especially Monetary
  • Economic Effects—U.S. and Global
    • Some Clear Implications
  • DE “Baseline” (Odds 60%, Down from 65%) and Alternative Risk Scenarios
  • “Growth Disappointment” (Odds 20%, Unch.)
  • “Mild Recession” (Odds 15%, Up from 5%)
  • “Upside Surprise” (Odds 5%, Unch.)
    • Fed Scenario and Interest Rates