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Category: Emerging Economies
India’s Inflation: Will the RBI Ease?
India’s latest inflation data (December) should be seen as relatively benign, and not an obstacle for the Reserve Bank of India’s pre-announced lowering of interest rates this quarter, possibly as early as the end of read more
China: China’s Inflation Acceleration: A Non-Event, For Now
Annual inflation rises from 2% Y/Y to 2.5% Y/Y. The low point in the cycle was October (1.7% Y/Y). The modest acceleration of inflation is occurring from very low rates, and it is for the read more
Korea: Flirting with Recession, Improving Outlook
Real GDP is growing minimally. Investment spending remains extremely weak, but likely to rebound if exports perform well and consumption enters even a modest uptrend.
China PMIs: No News, Good News?
China’s PMIs moved relatively little in December which confirms the upbeat message of last month’s data: the economy has bottomed and a recovery, albeit laden with risks, is underway.
China: Modest Recovery Continues – As Does Risk
November figures on fixed capital formation, retail sales, and trade indicate a stabilizing Chinese economy. More specifically, dependence on domestic consumption, growth in investment spending, and expanding exports are current highlights. While the data is read more
China PMIs: Encouraging
November PMIs suggest that China’s manufacturing sector has bottomed out and is en route to recovery. In particular, the Export Orders sub-index of the PMI inched into expansion territory for the first time in six read more
China: More Signs of Modest Improvement
Data on investment, retail sales, and industrial output support the notion that the economic stimulus measures adopted earlier in the year have begun to bear fruit. In fact, the data make clear that public-sector investment read more
Turkey’s Credit Upgrade, the Economy, Policy
The TCB is likely to ease policy further in the near-term. Should the recovery of emerging markets that has helpedTurkeyoffsetEurope’s weakness continue, exports will remain an important source of real GDP growth during the next read more
China: Signs of Improving Manufacturing Outlook (II)
China’s official PMIs confirm the improvement trend described not only by the HSBC-PMIs but by other high frequency measures of the economy. As is the case with the HSBC index, the official PMI components do read more
Research Studies
DE | Sinai Economic and Market Perspectives | Seeds of A Sovereign Debt Crisis Planted – 02/03/21
Seeds of A Sovereign Debt Crisis Planted Allen Sinai* The U.S. and Global economies have undergone a fiscal/debt revolution of huge import from which there will be no turning away! The main catalysts are the read more
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