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Category: U.S.
Trade Balance: No Change
The July trade performance is a bit better than expected, with the deficit expanding by only $0.1 billion (Consensus: worsen $1.5 billion; Decision Economics: worsen $1.2 billion) from a prior-month deficit revised to be $1.0 read more
Employment: Too Mild
August payroll employment rises a less-than-expected 96,000 (Consensus and Decision Economics: +125,000), with the workweek unchanged, as expected.
ISM Non-Manufacturing: Lessened Crisis Threat
The headline August ISM Non-Manufacturing Index unexpectedly rises 1.1 points (Consensus: -0.1 point; Decision Economics: -0.8 point) to 53.7.
Insights: Strong Loonie, Duty Free Changes Distorting U.S. and Canada Retail Sales Numbers?
Strong Loonie, Duty Free Changes Distorting U.S. and Canada Retail Sales Numbers? Canadian consumer showing weakness;U.S.consumer showing relative strength. Duty free changes effective June 1 allow Canadian consumers to bring back four times as read more
Productivity: Compensation and ULC Both Better
Revised second-quarter data show a stronger-than-expected productivity gain, with output-per-hour growth revised from +1.6% to +2.2% (Consensus: +1.8%; Decision Economics: +1.8%).
ISM: Too Stagnant?
The headline August ISM index is broadly in line, slipping 0.2 point to 49.6 (Consensus: +0.2 point; Decision Economics: -1.1 points), with the stagnant picture it paints confirmed by key component indexes.
Income and Consumption: Inflation Undershoot
July personal income and consumption are in line with expectations, with the former up 0.3% (Consensus: +0.3%; Decision Economics: +0.2%) and the latter 0.4% (Consensus: +0.5%; Decision Economics: +0.3%).
Initial Claims: Shakier Confidence?
Initial claims are broadly in line with expectations, holding steady (Consensus and Decision Economics: -2,000) at a prior-week level revised up by 2,000.
Pending Home Sales
Though not a spectacular gain, the rise breaks new ground in the current upswing of the index–taking it to a level last seen in the two homebuyer-tax credit episodes of 2009-2010.
GDP Revision: Stronger Consumer, Trade
The second estimate of Q2 GDP shows the U.S. economy expanded at 1.7% Q/Q annualized, up two-tenths from the advance estimate. Personal consumption expenditures grew 1.7% Q/Q annualized as well, from 1.5% in the advance read more
Research Studies
DE | Sinai Economic and Market Perspectives | Seeds of A Sovereign Debt Crisis Planted – 02/03/21
Seeds of A Sovereign Debt Crisis Planted Allen Sinai* The U.S. and Global economies have undergone a fiscal/debt revolution of huge import from which there will be no turning away! The main catalysts are the read more
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