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China: Modest Recovery Continues – As Does Risk
- November figures on fixed capital formation, retail sales, and trade indicate a stabilizing Chinese economy.
- More specifically, dependence on domestic consumption, growth in investment spending, and expanding exports are current highlights.
- While the data is constructive however, it is not enough to ease fears of a potential retrenchment if the external downward pressures intensify.
- All said, the most likely outcome of the present trends is real GDP growth of 7.5%-to-8% in the final quarter of 2012, with a possible small jump in 2013 to the 8%-to-8.5% range.
[private]12-10-12–EMG INDICATORS AND INSIGHTS (China Investment, Sales, Trade)[/private]