DE | Monthly |Replay: Employment Conference Call | 6/7/19

Posted June 7, 2019 by rvillareal

           How Long Can the “Good Jobs Times” Roll?

–  May Labor Market—Did the “Jobs Good Times” Roll On?  Strong, Weak, Mixed?

• Jobs (Nonfarm Payrolls; Jobs); Employment and the Unemployment Rate (Persons Working)
• Wage Cost Inflation—Still Subdued?
• Strengths and Weaknesses—Messages on the Economy
• Second Quarter GDP Tracking and Prospect

–  DE “Baseline Prospect” and Macro Risk Scenarios—Greater Downside Uncertainty
   From Macro Economy Risks But More From Political and Geopolitical

–  Wage Costs, Profit Margins, Productivity, and Earnings

–  Tariffs and the Impacts—Risks But Not Huge for Growth, Definitely Upside on Inflation,
    Downside on Earnings

–  DE Fed Base Case

• No Interest Rate Hikes Nor Cuts This Year
• Other Possibilities—Futures Market Pricing of Two Reductions
• Federal Reserve Assessment of its Policies and Practices—Especially Failure to Achieve a 2% Target

–  Financial Market Implications—Still a Relatively Small Correction in an Equity Bull
    Market? Interest Rates, Lower or Higher?  The Dollar