REPLAY |DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Summer Lull? Or Still a Hot Labor Market? – 8/2/19

Posted August 2, 2019 by rvillareal

Summer Lull?  Or Still a Hot Labor Market?

• • The Labor Market and the Economy—Key Consumer Fundamental for Income and Spending (69.7% of GDP), Saving, Sentiment
    • DE “Basic Prospect”—Early Q3 Look (Odds ?)
    • Main Macro Risk Alternative (“Disappointing Growth”)
  • Recession Risk—2019-21; Tiny (3%) But Why No Recession in Sight?
    • No Inventory Cycles Anymore
    • Low Inflation and Easy Money, U.S. and Globally
    • Fiscal Stimulus in the U.S.—Now No Budget Caps; No Sequester; Over $300 Billion Additional Purchases Next Two Years
    • Inflation Targeting Has Changed the Business Cycle—U.S. Since 2012
    • Excesses a Source?  Hard-to-See
    • Negative Shocks Which Can Include Oil, Political, Geopolitical
    • Declining Earnings Growth and Company Cutbacks—Business Sector as a Source
    • Rising Budget Deficits
    • Expectations Disappointments
  • FOMC Meeting Result; Fed Policy Prospect; Interest Rate Outlook
  • Equity Bull Market Parameters—Q2 S&P500 Op EPS Track, Forward Earnings Forecasts, Fair Value and Ranges