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REPLAY |DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Summer Lull? Or Still a Hot Labor Market? – 8/2/19
Summer Lull? Or Still a Hot Labor Market?
- The Labor Market and the Economy—Key Consumer
Fundamental for Income and Spending (69.7% of GDP), Saving, Sentiment
- DE “Basic Prospect”—Early Q3 Look (Odds ?)
- Main Macro Risk Alternative (“Disappointing Growth”)
- Recession Risk—2019-21; Tiny (3%) But Why No
Recession in Sight?
- No Inventory Cycles Anymore
- Low Inflation and Easy Money, U.S. and Globally
- Fiscal Stimulus in the U.S.—Now No Budget Caps; No Sequester; Over $300 Billion Additional Purchases Next Two Years
- Inflation Targeting Has Changed the Business Cycle—U.S. Since 2012
- Excesses a Source? Hard-to-See
- Negative Shocks Which Can Include Oil, Political, Geopolitical
- Declining Earnings Growth and Company Cutbacks—Business Sector as a Source
- Rising Budget Deficits
- Expectations Disappointments
- FOMC Meeting Result; Fed Policy Prospect; Interest Rate Outlook
- Equity Bull Market Parameters—Q2 S&P500 Op EPS Track, Forward Earnings Forecasts, Fair Value and Ranges
- The Labor Market and the Economy—Key Consumer
Fundamental for Income and Spending (69.7% of GDP), Saving, Sentiment