» REPLAY |DE | Quarterly | GDP Conference Call | Breaking Out—And Up? – 4/26/19 Decision Economics

REPLAY |DE | Quarterly | GDP Conference Call | Breaking Out—And Up? – 4/26/19

Posted April 26, 2019 by rvillareal

Breaking Out—And Up?

The Advance Report on the First Quarter U.S. Real GDP is important to see whether the U.S. economy is languishing with increasing recession risk or perhaps breaking out of winter doldrums, heading higher to help non-U.S. economies grow faster and, along with other economies, breaking up to higher growth, perhaps by more than expected. Or, perhaps not shedding light on either possibility.

How the economy goes can tell how inflation and unemployment will go, company earnings, and Fed policy and financial markets.


  • First Quarter Real GDP—Momentum Down, Up, Sideways?
  • The Data and Some Messages
  • Inflation and Unemployment
  • Strengths and Weaknesses in the Economy
  • The DE “Basic Prospect” and Major Macro Risk Alternatives—Still No Recession in Sight!
  • Fed Policy and the Interest Rate Prospect
  • Q1 Earnings to-Date and Implications from the GDP Report
  • Better Than Consensus But Not So Strong as DE
  • Narrowing the Range of Uncertainty for Earnings Growth a Key to Markets
  • Rest-of-the-World and Global Economic Momentum
  • The Record-High Equity Market and the Prospect
  • Earnings Expectations
  • P-E Valuations
  • Fair Value and Directional Views

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Team Decision Economics