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Emerging Markets: Losing Ground—Some Thoughts and Forecasts
- Emerging markets are likely to lag the global rebound, which this time is led by the mature economies.
- Events of global scale, such as the end of monetary easing in the U.S., plus China’s structural deceleration, will limit EM growth and lower their share in global GDP.
- Within EM, commodity producers (South America, Russia) are major relative losers, versus manufacturing producers, especially those tied to the U.S. economy (Mexico, China, Taiwan).