Replay | DE | Monthly | Employment Conference Call | Settling Down? – July 2019

Posted July 8, 2019 by rvillareal

After last month’s very weak jobs report, did the first report of summer (June) show signs of a settling down in jobs growth to a more “normal” pace? Or, were there signs of downside macroeconomic risks and potential weakness? Alternatively, full speed ahead for the economy?

– First Labor Market Report of the Summer (June)

• Weak Again? Strong? Mixed?

• Nonfarm Payrolls (Jobs); Unemployment Rate, Demand (Persons Who Found Work) and Supply (Labor Force); Any Signs of Wage Inflation (Cost-Push) and Potential Price Inflation Pickup

• The Economy and the Jobs Market—Strengths and Weaknesses. “Goods” Sectors vs. “Services” Sectors; in Particular, Weakening Manufacturing

• Q2 Implications for Real GDP and Inflation

– DE “Baseline Prospect” (Still 70% Odds After the June Labor Market Report?)

• “Basic Prospect” vs. Consensus and the Federal Reserve Growth Expectation—Why Stronger?

• Major Macro Risk Alternatives

– The Federal Reserve and the Federal Funds Rate—Implications from the Labor Market Report

• July 30-31 Fed Preview

• Fed, Short-Term and Long-Term Interest Rates

• Inflation the Key – Equity Bull Market New Highs—Coming Earnings, DE and Consensus Prospects; Fair Value Ranges and Directional Points on the DE and Consensus Earnings Expectations