REPLAY |DE | Monthly | GDP Conference Call | The Economy—Slowing Down? Picking Up? Which Way Forward?  – 10/30/19

Posted October 30, 2019 by rvillareal

The Economy—Slowing Down? Picking Up? Which Way Forward?

• Q3 Economy—First Report on the Third Quarter
  • Weakened and Weakening? Picking Up? Stall Speed?
    • Economy’s Strengths and Weaknesses
    • Q4 Prospect and Possibilities
• Recession on the Horizon?
  • DE Basic Prospect (60% Odds)
  • Macro Risk Alternatives “Disappointing Growth” and/or “Recession” (Total 40% Downside Risk)
    • Key Factors to Watch and Risk Elements
• Key Assumptions for the Baseline
  • Non-U.S. Economies—2019-20—Tilting Up
  • “Trade War” and Trumpian Politics
  • 2020 Election—When Does it Matter?
  • Macro Policy Prospects—

U.S. “Easy Money”  “Fiscal Stimulus”;

Eurozone “Easy Money” “Fiscal Stimulus”;

Japan “Easy Money” “Fiscal Restraint”;

China “Easy Money” “Easy Fiscal”

• Fed Policy, Near-Term and Beyond and the Interest Rate Outlook
  • Preemption But is it Enough?
  • Somewhat Lower Then Somewhat Higher
  • No Yield Curve Inversion
• Continuing Bull Equity Market—Can it Last?
  • Earnings Update—U.S.
  • Fair Value and Fair Value Ranges
• Asset Allocation Perspectives