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REPLAY |DE | Monthly | GDP Conference Call | The Economy—Slowing Down? Picking Up? Which Way Forward? – 10/30/19
- Q3 Economy—First
Report on the Third Quarter
- Weakened and
Weakening? Picking Up? Stall Speed?
- Economy’s Strengths and Weaknesses
- Q4 Prospect and Possibilities
- Weakened and Weakening? Picking Up? Stall Speed?
- Recession on the
- DE Basic Prospect (60% Odds)
- Macro Risk
Alternatives “Disappointing Growth” and/or “Recession” (Total 40% Downside
- Key Factors to Watch and Risk Elements
- Key Assumptions
for the Baseline
- Non-U.S. Economies—2019-20—Tilting Up
- “Trade War” and Trumpian Politics
- 2020 Election—When Does it Matter?
- Macro Policy Prospects—
U.S. “Easy Money” “Fiscal Stimulus”;
Eurozone “Easy Money” “Fiscal Stimulus”;
Japan “Easy Money” “Fiscal Restraint”;
China “Easy Money” “Easy Fiscal”
- Fed Policy,
Near-Term and Beyond and the Interest Rate Outlook
- Preemption But is it Enough?
- Somewhat Lower Then Somewhat Higher
- No Yield Curve Inversion
- Continuing Bull
Equity Market—Can it Last?
- Earnings Update—U.S.
- Fair Value and Fair Value Ranges
- Asset Allocation Perspectives