REPLAY | DE | Quarterly | GDP Conference Call | How Goes the Economic Expansion? What Next and Inflation Risk? – 10/28/21

Posted October 28, 2021 by rvillareal

How Goes the Economic Expansion?  What Next and Inflation Risk?

• Q3 U.S. Economy—Strong, Weak, Mixed?
• Slowdown in Growth and then Pickup.  Why?
  • Consumption the Big Driver Now and Going Forward
  • Business Outlays—Source of Strength?
  • Trade and the Non-U.S. Prospect
• Federal Government, Deficits and Debt Stimulus—How Spending Initially Helps
• DE Basic Prospect “Expansion” (75% Odds)—Typically at Least 3 Years to as Long as 10 Years
  • Basic Prospect “Story”—Strong Underlying Sectors and Huge Policy Stimulus
  • Dimensions—Growth, Inflation, Employment and Unemployment, Profits
  • Monetary and Fiscal Policy Support Huge Relative to History
• Macro Risk Alternatives
  • Boom-Bust (10% Odds)—Boom Early, Accelerated Inflation, Fed Tightening, Recession
  • Federal Reserve Scenario (10% Odds)—Slowing Growth, Falling Inflation, Reaching Full Employment
  • Recession (5%)
• Fed Plan Pre- and Post-FOMC Meeting (Nov. 2-3)
• Interest Rate Prospects and Fundamental Determinants
• Equity Bull Market—Carrying-On
  • Earnings, Earnings, Earnings
  • Fair Value and Fair Value Ranges