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REPLAY| DE | Quarterly | GDP Conference Call | “The Economy” Waiting for Shoe(s) to Drop—Which Way Will They Fall? – 10/29/20
Waiting for Shoe(s) to Drop—Which Way Will They Fall?
- First Shoe—Third Quarter Real GDP (Adv.)—Economy
- Rebound from Q2 “Collapse”: Big or Little?
- Recovery In-Train (Monthly Data, May ff)—2 Qtrs. of Plus Real GDP?
- Start “Engine”: Shutdowns—Reopenings
- The Consumer
- Fed Ultra Ease and Housing—3 Main Levers
- Inventory Cycle a Plus
- Fiscal Policy Support Q3 “Bridge” Support
- DE Basic
Prospect—Still “ ‘L’ With an Uptilt” (Odds 65%) or Nike “Swoosh”—The GDP Path
- Dampened Growth Ahead But Sustainable
- Reasons—Pluses and Minuses
- Second Shoe—Macro Risks—Pandemic (Virus) A Big Deal in
- “V” (Odds 10%)
- “W”, “Double-Dip” (Odds 15%)
- Other (Odds 10%)
- The Fed and Fiscal Policies—Recovery Fundamental
- “Ultra” Ultra Easy Monetary Policy—Three Components and New Forward Guidance 2% Average Price Inflation
- Fiscal Policy Stimulus—How Much, When, Needed?
- Third Shoe—Election ’20 and After Scenarios
- Fourth Shoe—Global Economy—China and Asia Upturns But Now the Virus Resurgence
- Fifth Shoe—Policies Post-Election ‘20
- Financial Markets Prospects—Equity Bull Market Longer-Run; Range Bound Consolidations Near-Term; Interest Rates Stable with Upward Tilt on Longer Duration; Dollar Prospect Uncertain, Chinese Currency Positive