» REPLAY| DE | Quarterly | GDP Conference Call | “The Economy” Waiting for Shoe(s) to Drop—Which Way Will They Fall? – 10/29/20 Decision Economics

REPLAY| DE | Quarterly | GDP Conference Call | “The Economy” Waiting for Shoe(s) to Drop—Which Way Will They Fall? – 10/29/20

Posted October 29, 2020 by rvillareal

“The Economy”

Waiting for Shoe(s) to Drop—Which Way Will They Fall?

  • First Shoe—Third Quarter Real GDP (Adv.)—Economy
    • Rebound from Q2 “Collapse”: Big or Little?
    • Recovery In-Train (Monthly Data, May ff)—2 Qtrs. of Plus Real GDP?
    • Start “Engine”: Shutdowns—Reopenings
    • The Consumer
    • Fed Ultra Ease and Housing—3 Main Levers
    • Inventory Cycle a Plus
    • Fiscal Policy Support Q3 “Bridge” Support
  • DE Basic Prospect—Still “ ‘L’ With an Uptilt” (Odds 65%) or Nike “Swoosh”—The GDP Path
    • Dampened Growth Ahead But Sustainable
    • Reasons—Pluses and Minuses
    • Second Shoe—Macro Risks—Pandemic (Virus) A Big Deal in Business Cycle
      • “V” (Odds 10%)
      • “W”, “Double-Dip” (Odds 15%)
      • Other (Odds 10%)
    • The Fed and Fiscal Policies—Recovery Fundamental Support
      • “Ultra” Ultra Easy Monetary Policy—Three Components and New Forward Guidance 2% Average Price Inflation
      • Fiscal Policy Stimulus—How Much, When, Needed?
    • Third Shoe—Election ’20 and After Scenarios
  • Fourth Shoe—Global Economy—China and Asia Upturns But Now the Virus Resurgence
  • Fifth Shoe—Policies Post-Election ‘20
  • Financial Markets Prospects—Equity Bull Market Longer-Run; Range Bound Consolidations Near-Term; Interest Rates Stable with Upward Tilt on Longer Duration; Dollar Prospect Uncertain, Chinese Currency Positive