REPLAY – Sinai’s Employment Call – 4/1/16

Posted April 1, 2016 by rvillareal

Springtime, the Labor Market, the Economy, and the Fed

• S. Labor Market Entering Spring

• March Data—Strong, Mixed, Weak?
• “Full Employment”—Are We There?
  • “Price Stability”—Are We Headed There? When?
• Economy and Labor Market in Contrast—

What Can We Learn?

• How Does It (the Economy) Look Now?
• “Basic Prospect”—Some Small Changes
  • Macro Risks List—Some Fading, Some Front-and-Center
• Monetary Policy and “Fed Think”

• March FOMC Meeting and the Result
• The Yellen Speech—Who Speaks for the Fed?
  • What Counts for the Fed? Price Inflation, the Global Economy, Financial Markets Instability?
  • Fed Scenario and DE Fed Scenario
• Fixed Income and Equity Markets Perspectives

• DE Interest Rate Fundamentals and Forecasts—Econometric Model Results
• New Fair Values and Ranges for the U.S. Equity Market—A Higher P‑E Ratio
  • Earnings Regrowth a Key Factor—Pre-Earnings Season Estimates—When?