» REPLAY: Employment Conference Call – 1/4/19 Decision Economics

REPLAY: Employment Conference Call – 1/4/19

Posted January 4, 2019 by rvillareal

The U.S. Labor Market: Key to the “Kingdom”

How the U.S. labor market goes is “Key” to the “Kingdom” of answers to key questions for the economy and financial markets.

Questions—1) 2019 U.S. Economy Solid, Slowing Down, a Recession? 2) What About the Surprisingly Low Wage and Price Inflation—to Continue? 3) Jobs and Income, Income and Spending, Spending and Jobs—Will this “Loop” Continue or Get Interrupted by Business Uncertainties? 4) The Labor Market and a Federal Reserve in Transition.  How many increases in the Federal funds rate? 5) Labor Market and the Stock Market—Correction or Bear Equity Market—Does it Matter?  6) Contrast Between “Wall St.” and “Main Street.” 7) Politics and Geopolitics—Trump and Washington—Trump and the World.


  • Labor Market in December—Strong, Mixed, Weak?
    • Establishment Survey Nonfarm Payrolls—Business Hiring Strong or Weakening? Key to Watch
    • Unemployment Rate, Wage Inflation—Where is the Inflation?
  • Labor Market and the Economy
    • Baseline Prospect—Slower Growth but not Weak
    • Macro Risk Alternatives—Biggest Fundamental Risk non-U.S. Global Growth and Impacts on U.S.
  • Labor Market and the Federal Reserve—Full Employment or Price Stability the Key?
    • Fed Plan and a Fed in Transition
    • DE Forecast Fed Policy Path
  • Labor Market and Financial Markets—Interest Rates, the Stock Market, U.S Dollar—Perspectives and Prospects