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REPLAY – Employment Conference Call – 12/7/18
The Pre-Xmas Labor Market: Still Hot?
A very hot, tight and tightening, labor market in 2018 has surprised on its strength, although consistent with a new higher path of real GDP growth that has appeared. At the same time, despite a lower actual unemployment rate than the commonly thought full employment unemployment rate, wage and price inflation remain subdued.
Did the American Jobs Machine Pre-Xmas still crank them out in November?
A Pre-Xmas look at the stock market Correction, the downward turn in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, and a relatively stable dollar vs. other major currencies.
- Pre-Xmas Labor Market—The Data
- Strong, Weak, Mixed?
- Nonfarm Payrolls; Employment and the Unemployment Rate; Wage Inflation
- Q4 U.S. Economy Track—Significant Slowing?
- DE Basic Prospect—2019
- Macro Risk Alternatives
- Fed in Transition
- Fed Path and Interest Rates Forecasts
- Correction and Consolidations—Over or Ongoing?
- Correction Down Risks—New Risks?
- Fair Value Possibilities
- Asset Allocation Perspectives for the Coming Year