» REPLAY – Sinai’s Conference Call – 4/1/16 Decision Economics

REPLAY – Sinai’s Conference Call – 4/1/16

Posted April 1, 2016 by rvillareal

Springtime, the Labor Market, the Economy, and the Fed

  • S. Labor Market Entering Spring
  • March Data—Strong, Mixed, Weak?
  • “Full Employment”—Are We There?
    • “Price Stability”—Are We Headed There? When?
  • Economy and Labor Market in Contrast—

What Can We Learn?

  • How Does It (the Economy) Look Now?
  • “Basic Prospect”—Some Small Changes
    • Macro Risks List—Some Fading, Some Front-and-Center
  • Monetary Policy and “Fed Think”
  • March FOMC Meeting and the Result
  • The Yellen Speech—Who Speaks for the Fed?
    • What Counts for the Fed? Price Inflation, the Global Economy, Financial Markets Instability?
    • Fed Scenario and DE Fed Scenario
  • Fixed Income and Equity Markets Perspectives
  • DE Interest Rate Fundamentals and Forecasts—Econometric Model Results
  • New Fair Values and Ranges for the U.S. Equity Market—A Higher P‑E Ratio
    • Earnings Regrowth a Key Factor—Pre-Earnings Season Estimates—When?