» REPLAY: Sinai’s Employment Conference Call – 12/8/17 Decision Economics

REPLAY: Sinai’s Employment Conference Call – 12/8/17

Posted December 8, 2017 by rvillareal

Pre-Christmas Labor Market—Still Tight and Tightening?

The Labor Market Post-Hurricanes and Pre-Xmas

  • November Labor Market—Strong, Weak, Mixed?
    • Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Wage Inflation
    • Where Jobs Are, Where Aren’t
  • The Labor Market and the U.S. Economy Prospect
    • “Basic Prospect” “Overshoot and Trumponomics” (70% odds)
    • Macro Risk Alternatives—Upside (10%); Boom-Bust (10%); Downside (“Old” New Normal) (10%)
  • Washington Political and Geopolitical the Biggest Risks
  • Inflation and Fed Policy—A Key in the Puzzle of Low Inflation
    • Wage-Inflation Phillips Curve?
    • Price-Inflation Phillips Curve?
    • DE Research—Mismeasured Productivity Growth, New-New Technology, Lower Expected Infla8tion
  • Fed Prospect—“Forecasts” and “Dot Plots” Plan to be Noted
    • More Growth, Lower Unemployment, Pretty Much the Same Inflation Expected Fed Forecasts
    • “Tax Reduction and Jobs Act” effects and the Fed
      • Fed Forecasts and the Tax Cut Stimulus—“What If”
      • Fed Plan—Gradualism But With a Potential Hawkish Tilt
  • Fixed Income and Equity Market Prospects