REPLAY – Sinai’s Employment Conference Call – 3/9/18

Posted March 9, 2018 by rvillareal

Economy, Labor Market, the Economy, Wage and Price Inflation,

the Fed and Markets

• The Labor Market in February
  • Strong Again? Weaker!  Mixed?
  • Jobs and Employment; Unemployment Rate; Wage Inflation
  • Wage Inflation and the “Phillips Curve”—Kicking-In?
• Economy—DE “Basic Prospect” (70% odds)—“New” New Economy Parameters
  • Growth, Unemployment Rate, Inflation—2018 to 2020
  • Tax Cuts and Jobs Recovery Act of 2017—Effects and Evidence To-Date
  • Deficits—An Issue? What to Expect
• Fed on March 20-21—Key Meeting
  • DE—Four Funds Rate Hikes; One per Quarter
  • “Bear Market” Fixed Income
  • Inflation the Key
• Financial Market Perspectives
  • Long-Run Bull Equity Market; Bear Fixed Income; Cash & Equivalent a New Alternative
  • Short-Run—Volatility, Consolidation, and Waiting for the Fed, Then Earnings
• Conclusion—A More Normal Business Cycle—U.S. and the World