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REPLAY – Sinai’s Employment Conference Call – 8/2/13
July Labor Market: “Sustained Improvement?”
– Fed “Plan” and Fed “Scenario” to Execute—Monitoring the Status
- Plan (Two Parts)
– QE “Taper”
– Interest Rates
– Sustained Improvement in the Labor Market
– Lift Up in the Economy
– Transitory Low Inflation
– July Labor Market Do It?
- Nonfarm Payroll (Jobs)—Strengthening? Sideways or Stable? Weaker?
- Household Survey (Persons Working) and Unemployment Rate—Strengthening? Sideways or Stable? Weaker?
- Unemployment Rate—Good or Bad Indicator of the Labor Market?
- Labor Force Role
- Other Labor Market Indicators
– U.S. Economy Prospect and Scenario Risks
- DE “Baseline Prospect” (Growth Pickup; Lower Unemployment Rate; Continuing Low Inflation) (65%)
- Alternative Risk Scenarios—1) Fed Scenario (Big Growth Pickup; Sticky-High But Improving Unemployment Rate; Transitory Low Inflation) (10%); 2) Growth Recession (1%-to-2% Growth; Unemployment Rate Stable; Disinflation) (10%); 3) Delayed Upturn (2%-to-3% Growth Then 3%-to-4%; Faster Decline in the Unemployment Rate; Higher Inflation) (15%)
– Fed “Scenario” at September 17-18 Meeting: State of Labor Market, Economy, Transitory Low Inflation
- “Sustained Improvement” First Among Equals
- Economy and the Puzzle of Low Inflation
– Fed Outlook—When Taper Gently So; Interest Rates Change Perhaps When 6-1/2% Unemployment Rate In-Sight
– Market Perspectives—Near- and Longer-Term
- Trading Reactions?
- Strongly Overweight Equities; Underweight Fixed Income; Zero Weight Cash & Equivalent; Overweight Alternatives