» REPLAY – Sinai’s Employment Conference Call – 8/2/13 Decision Economics

REPLAY – Sinai’s Employment Conference Call – 8/2/13

Posted August 2, 2013 by rvillareal

July Labor Market: “Sustained Improvement?”

–        Fed “Plan” and Fed “Scenario” to Execute—Monitoring the Status

  • Plan (Two Parts)

–         QE “Taper”

–         Interest Rates

  • Scenario

–         Sustained Improvement in the Labor Market

–         Lift Up in the Economy

–         Transitory Low Inflation

–        July Labor Market Do It?

  • Nonfarm Payroll (Jobs)—Strengthening?  Sideways or Stable?  Weaker?
  • Household Survey (Persons Working) and Unemployment Rate—Strengthening?  Sideways or Stable?  Weaker?
  • Unemployment Rate—Good or Bad Indicator of the Labor Market?
  • Labor Force Role
  • Other Labor Market Indicators

–        U.S. Economy Prospect and Scenario Risks

  • DE “Baseline Prospect” (Growth Pickup; Lower Unemployment Rate; Continuing Low Inflation) (65%)
  • Alternative Risk Scenarios—1) Fed Scenario (Big Growth Pickup; Sticky-High But Improving Unemployment Rate; Transitory Low Inflation) (10%); 2) Growth Recession (1%-to-2% Growth; Unemployment Rate Stable; Disinflation) (10%); 3) Delayed Upturn (2%-to-3% Growth Then 3%-to-4%; Faster Decline in the Unemployment Rate; Higher Inflation) (15%)

–        Fed “Scenario” at September 17-18 Meeting: State of Labor Market, Economy, Transitory Low Inflation

  • “Sustained Improvement” First Among Equals
  • Economy and the Puzzle of Low Inflation

–        Fed Outlook—When Taper Gently So; Interest Rates Change Perhaps When 6-1/2% Unemployment Rate In-Sight

–        Market Perspectives—Near- and Longer-Term

  • Trading Reactions?
  • Strongly Overweight Equities; Underweight Fixed Income; Zero Weight Cash & Equivalent; Overweight Alternatives
Not yet a Decision Economics member?  Click here to register for a FREE 30 day trial.  

If you are already a member, click here to login.