» REPLAY – Sinai’s Employment Conference Call – 9/2/16 Decision Economics

REPLAY – Sinai’s Employment Conference Call – 9/2/16

Posted September 2, 2016 by rvillareal

The Labor Market; “Full Employment” and “Price Stability”;

FedThink and Fed Policy; the Economy and Markets

  • Labor Market in Late Summer—Strong Enough for “Full Employment” and “Price Stability”?
  • Data—Jobs, Unemployment Rate, Wage Inflation
    • “Wage-Phillips Curve” Inflation—Clicking-In?
  • Labor Market Cyclical Inflation Process
  • Full Employment and Price Stability Prospects Post-Labor Market Report
    • Fed Policy and the September 20-21 FOMC Meeting
      • J-Hole Tee Up for Rate Hike!
      • Most Fed Concerns Gone—1) Labor Market and Economy, 2) Brexit and International, 3) Financial Instability, 4) Not Yet Price Stability at 2% Medium-Term
      • Incoming Data Now In—What Else?
      • Price Inflation Framework and Forecasts—Fed and DE
      • Federal Funds Rate Scenario(s)
      • The U.S. Economy—“Baseline” and Macro Alternative Scenarios—Still Long Expansion View and Record-Long Secular Equity Bull Market
      • Interest Rates, the Stock Market, Dollar
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