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REPLAY – Sinai’s GDP Conference Call – 4/28/16
Economy Prospect, Risks, Monetary Policy and Markets:
The Early Year Economy and Beyond
- Early Year U.S. Economy and 2016, 2017
- First Report on the First Quarter—Weak? Weakness to Continue? A Momentum Pickup Coming?
- Messages from the GDP Report
- Why Such Weak GDP Growth? Economy Really Weak?
- Q2 Entry and Track—The Second Half and Look Beyond
- Election Year Uncertainties
- Baseline and Alternative Macro Risk Scenarios
- Basic Prospect (65%, down from 70%)
- Growth Disappointment (20%, up from previous 15%)
- Upside Possibility (5%, unch.)
- Inflation Surprises (10%, unch.)
- What Next for the Federal Reserve?
- FOMC Meeting Statement—Messages
- DE Fed Policy Scenario—Inflation the “Driver”
- June Hike? Two This Year?
- DE Interest Rate Forecast
- Some Near- and Longer-Term Financial Markets Prospects—Equity Market and U.S. Dollar