REPLAY – Sinai’s GDP Conference Call – 4/28/16

Posted April 28, 2016 by rvillareal

Economy Prospect, Risks, Monetary Policy and Markets:

The Early Year Economy and Beyond

• Early Year U.S. Economy and 2016, 2017
  • First Report on the First Quarter—Weak? Weakness to Continue?  A Momentum Pickup Coming?
  • Messages from the GDP Report
  • Why Such Weak GDP Growth? Economy Really Weak?
  • Q2 Entry and Track—The Second Half and Look Beyond
  • Election Year Uncertainties
• Baseline and Alternative Macro Risk Scenarios
  • Basic Prospect (65%, down from 70%)
  • Growth Disappointment (20%, up from previous 15%)
  • Upside Possibility (5%, unch.)
  • Inflation Surprises (10%, unch.)
• What Next for the Federal Reserve?
  • FOMC Meeting Statement—Messages
  • DE Fed Policy Scenario—Inflation the “Driver”
  • June Hike? Two This Year?
  • DE Interest Rate Forecast
• Some Near- and Longer-Term Financial Markets Prospects—Equity Market and U.S. Dollar