» REPLAY – Sinai’s GDP Conference Call – 4/28/16 Decision Economics

REPLAY – Sinai’s GDP Conference Call – 4/28/16

Posted April 28, 2016 by rvillareal

Economy Prospect, Risks, Monetary Policy and Markets:

The Early Year Economy and Beyond

 

  • Early Year U.S. Economy and 2016, 2017
    • First Report on the First Quarter—Weak? Weakness to Continue?  A Momentum Pickup Coming?
    • Messages from the GDP Report
    • Why Such Weak GDP Growth? Economy Really Weak?
    • Q2 Entry and Track—The Second Half and Look Beyond
    • Election Year Uncertainties
  • Baseline and Alternative Macro Risk Scenarios
    • Basic Prospect (65%, down from 70%)
    • Growth Disappointment (20%, up from previous 15%)
    • Upside Possibility (5%, unch.)
    • Inflation Surprises (10%, unch.)
  • What Next for the Federal Reserve?
    • FOMC Meeting Statement—Messages
    • DE Fed Policy Scenario—Inflation the “Driver”
    • June Hike? Two This Year?
    • DE Interest Rate Forecast
  • Some Near- and Longer-Term Financial Markets Prospects—Equity Market and U.S. Dollar
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