REPLAY – Sinai’s GDP Conference Call – 4/30/14

Posted April 30, 2014 by rvillareal

                                 1^st Report on First Qtr. GDP:  A Sustainable Rebound?

–         1^st Qtr. GDP—Weak, Strong, Neither Strong nor Weak?

• GDP and Its Components— Strengths and Weaknesses
• Weather and Inventory Correction Footprints
• How Goes the Consumer
• “Fiscal Drag” Over?

–         Q2 Prospect and Beyond—No More “L” With an Uptilt at Bottom—Half “V” Better!

• Rebound to be Sustained?
• The Consumer Economy: Size and Fundamentals
• Capex—Info Tech and “New” New Tech
• Still Low Inflation?

–         “Where’s the Inflation?”

• Inflation Transitory Low, Permanently Low, or to Turn Up?
• Candidates Y/Y Low Inflation—“Old” and “New”

–         “Baseline Prospect” and Alternative Scenarios—

• Baseline
• “Delayed Takeoff”
• “EMG Troubles”

–         Monetary Policy and Interest Rates

• “Tapering” a Done Deal
• First Federal Funds Rate Hike—Clock Ticking Starting in October or December
• What to Watch? Categories of Indicators—Labor Market, Inflation and Inflation Expectations, Financial Conditions
• “FedThink” on the First Rate Hike—Sometime Later in 2015; Slow, Steady Increases
• When the Rate Hike, By How Much, Over What Time Span—“Unambiguous” and “Ambiguous” Scenarios

–         Financial Markets Perspectives